Published date: 24 March 2025
GBPEUR
GBP/EUR continues to bounce from major technical support at 1.1908, assisted by this morning’s strong services PMI release (expansionary 53.2 versus forecast 51.2), with the eurozone unable to match the service sector ebullience (at 50.4 v 51.2). The Spring statement on Wednesday is in focus for sterling, whilst for the euro, increasing focus on next week’s reciprocal tariffs from the US may keep the eurozone in the firing line.
GBPUSD
GBP/USD remained in tight ranges last week, as both the Fed and BoE held rates steady and wider market sentiment took a ‘breather’ from recent declines. The BoE retained a cautious stance toward rate cuts (markets see a >60% of a cut at the May meeting), whilst the Fed lowered growth forecasts and raised the inflation outlook.
EURUSD
EUR/USD began to retrace from the 1.0929 level last week, as recent gains precipitated some profit-taking on recent euro longs, alongside a slight dollar bounce from low levels and a calmer macro risk environment (S&P 500 equity index bounced last week). Eurozone PMI data this morning beat expectations in manufacturing but missed in services. US PMI is due later today, before GDP Thursday and core PCE data on Friday will provide fresh
impetus for the dollar.
