Published date: 11 November 2024
GBPEUR
GBPEUR pushed higher last week, and price action tested the huge 1.2080 technical level. The Euro weakened post Trump election win, in part because the eurozone would suffer from the higher tariff regime of a Trump presidency. Sterling benefitted from a ‘hawkish’ cut from the Bank of England (BoE) where Bailey was very cautious toward future rate cuts, whilst raising the inflation forecast and emphasizing the need for policy restrictiveness.
GBPUSD
GBP/USD experienced a justifiably ‘choppy week’ but remained within major technical levels. The Trump win ushered in a bout of dollar strength given his policies are inflationary. As expected, both the Fed and BoE cut rates by 0.25% with minimal market reaction. This week, there is plenty of UK data to watch, including unemployment claims, GDP, and a Bailey speaking. In the US, inflation data and a retail sales update are inbound, as markets continue to digest recent events.
EURUSD
EURUSD suffered sharp declines as the Trump victory drove dollar gains, and the associated tariff policy was seen as punitive for the ‘export’ heavy eurozone where the US is the largest export market. Eurozone data is light this week, leaving US inflation data and Fed speakers the driver of short-term price action, while volatility is likely to reduce after a busy period of fundamental developments.
